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| Staff Writer |
One of the wonderful things I like about Everest is that it recognises some of the real heroes of the racing world, the stable staff. Yes, we need world class jockeys, trainers, and wealthy owners but we also need the lads and lasses who rise early each day to spoil these multimillion-dollar racehorses, often putting their equine friends before themselves. The trainers and owners always recognise the work that they put in but it is nice to see them rewarded financially by the sponsors, in fact, the winning stable hand will take home A$93.000, with prizes down to twelfth place, wow!
With over 60 Group 1 races in 2022, Australian racing is in a healthy state partly due to them always looking for fresh new ideas, hence the introduction of this, the world’s richest turf horse race in 2017. A report commissioned in 2019 indicated that the thoroughbred breeding industry in Australia is worth over A$1bn per annum to the economy and that it employs around 8000 people many in rural and regional areas. Continuing with their forward thinking, Racing NSW have now introduced a new initiative either side of and including the Everest. Their innovative A$6m Sydney Sprint Series and requires those eligible to contest at least three of the nominated races, notably the Concorde Stakes, The Shorts, the Premiere Stakes, the Everest, the Sydney Stakes, and the new Nature Strip Stakes. Points are awarded for the finishing position in each of those sprints with double points in the final Nature Strip Stakes and an A$2.5m bonus for the horse with the most points. Whilst this series is a great idea and plenty of prizemoney is on offer, most of the Everest contenders would take in two of those races anyway, as their normal path to the race. Of the five previous Everest winners, the ten prep races taken in en-route saw runs in three Concordes three Shorts and two Premieres. Only Yes Yes Yes (the only three-year-old winner) went via a completely different route.
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We should never knock new initiatives, especially one with as much prizemoney as this, but personally I am not sure it was needed in this format. Will it detract from The Everest? Only time will tell, so this season will be very revealing.
So, what does it take to win an Everest? It is a race contested by twelve of the fastest horses in the world so there is little margin for error both in the planning and on the day. We can look at past stats to see if there is a pattern emerging but with only five runnings of the event so far, the sample size is small. All the winners had two prep races after a break and trainers clearly have a route mapped out to get their superstars there in peak condition for the day. As we have mentioned, the timing of those Gr.2 and Gr.3 races during September are perfect preparation for the sprinters and the trainers will continue to use them even without incentives.
We can assess a horse’s chances in getting to the race in tip-top condition, which is the easy part, after that there is a little bit of luck involved. Ground conditions on the day are an unknown but most of these sprinters are adaptable. They might have their preferred ground, but they have the ability to perform in most conditions. What is less predictable is the barrier position and that is in the lap of the Gods. The five winning barriers were 10, 9, 6, 1 and 4 so that suggests no real advantage but being drawn high is never ideal. Nature Strip from ten last year got across early to lead and Yes Yes Yes won from barrier nine where the race opened up perfectly in front of him. I am sure connections would prefer to be from a low barrier, get straight onto the rail and be able to control the race from on the pace.
On to the intended runners and Nature Strip is the bookmaker’s favourite and almost certain to be there on the day. The whole race would seem to revolve around him after his stunning Royal Ascot run, where he was very impressive over one thousand metres. Even though it was such a prestigious meeting and a Group 1, I am not convinced he beat a strong field from the UK and Ireland and the US challenger Golden Pal did not show his running after a tardy start. That does not decry from a superb performance and we do know that he is top class in Australia. One thing that the UK win did prove is his versatility with regards to the ground. The Good to Firm at Ascot was pretty quick on the day and his previous win in the TJ Smith at Randwick was on a Heavy track. His win from the front last year was in the main down to a superb ride and although Last Crusader, Eduardo, and Classique Legend all finished, James McDonald got all the fractions right, something they had not managed in the previous runnings. Nature Strip highlights how pace in the race is perhaps the most crucial factor along with ground conditions, we know before the race that all twelve of the horses will be up to the task so tactics will be crucial. Redzel ran similar races from the front for his two victories under the great Kerrin McEvoy and McDonald will surely try to execute the same again. This time though the other jocks will be more aware.
Eduardo is another sprinting legend with previous history in the race and a fierce rivalry with Nature Strip. He went off far too quickly when he ran like a scalded cat in 2020, before dropping away to finish in the rear. He was much more controlled and ridden on the pace with a touch of restraint last year where he finished third beaten two necks and who can forget their scintillating race in The Shorts in 2021 with Eduardo just prevailing late on. They have raced against each other on ten occasions with Nature Strip leading by six to four. However, the four races over 1200 metres have all gone to Nature Strip. It seems that connections will need to concoct a different plan this time around.
Mazu has been my long-range fancy for this race, not original I know, but he is a fantastic horse, is still improving and, as a four-year-old, who knows where he will end up, Royal Ascot next year? You never know how far he can go if he continues his progress. His trainers, Peter and Paul Snowden certainly know how to produce an Everest winner, having trained Redzel to land the first two runnings of the race. He is lightly raced, having only had eleven starts and started his career in a maiden handicap at Canterbury Park. His win in a listed race at Randwick last October seems to have propelled him to a new level as he has since reeled off five straight wins, the last two being the Group 2 Arrowfield at Randwick followed by the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 run at Eagle Farm where he held off Paulele. Connections have been bullish about this horse and have got him back in the stable early with a view to getting him stronger than he has been before. He will most likely follow the Redzel route to the race.
Masked Crusader was unlucky last year when finishing all over Nature Strip and was in front just after the line. I have learnt, to my cost over the years, that sometimes you do not take past runs literally. Yes, he probably should have won but in re-opposing this year he is not guaranteed to get the race run in the same way and, even if he does beat Nature Strip, he might not beat the others.
He has not run so well so far this year but he has run in three Group 1’s, and, with the Everest as his main target, his shrewd stable will have calculated how to get him exactly right on the day, almost certainly taking in the Premiere Stakes again.
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Lost And Running is a Gr.3 winner over course and distance and looks to be improving with each run. He went off favourite for the Newmarket Handicap back in February where he never got competitive with no obvious excuses. He has the most improvement to find to again get competitive with some of the big guns but he is in exceptionally capable hands with John O’Shea, and he was fourth at a big price last year. His trials will be most enlightening.
One of the big questions that we need to answer is who will Godolphin and Coolmore nominate in their slots? It is a bit of a guessing game at present and the next few weeks will tell us a lot more but, for Coolmore their recent purchase Best Of Bordeaux looks a likely type, even though another year might see him in better light. The Snitzel colt is already a dual Group race winner and ran second in the Gr.1 Golden Slipper behind Fireburn. He has an exciting future and we need to keep a close eye on his progress but Coolmore and jockey James McDonald seem excited by the way they believe he has trained on although they may opt for a different route this spring and come back next year with a stronger more streetwise horse. With Home Affairs retired to stud duties their other main option would appear to be the US trained Golden Pal who has yet to race in Australia and who disappointed at Ascot. It would be an amazing training feat by Wesley Ward, not only to get him back on track, but to get him to challenge the best sprinters in Australia. Unlike in 2018 when they ran the useful US Navy Flag in it, they do not have the depth in the UK and Ireland to bring one over but they always have the option to purchase a horse who shows up well in the coming weeks.
Godolphin’s options appear a little stronger, Paulele the main focus of attention. He often flatters to deceive but runs at the highest level, including most recently finishing second in two consecutive Group 1’s at Eagle Farm. In the first of those he ran Mazu close and he appears to have improved this season. He is certainly worth his place and he won the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes over course and distance last October.
Should they encounter problems with his preparation, they have a likely sort in the UK, Naval Crown, who won the Group 1 over 1200 metres at Ascot and ran second in the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket. It seems unlikely that connections would want to ship him out at this stage but it is not a bad option to have in reserve even though his best form has come on fast ground. Of their potential improvers, Andermattshould be kept in mind. He is also a son of Snitzel and has been contesting decent handicaps winning the Furphy handicap at Randwick in April easily. Should the ground turn soft, he may show further improvement.
With so much speculation about who will be involved in September we need to scrutinise the trials as they will be informative. By then we will know a lot more about these thoroughbreds and we should have an idea who are the twelve to go to post. The Missile Stakes failed to throw up a serious challenger and the reputations of Forbidden Love and Count De Rupee were done no favours with the win for the 100/1 roughie Hard Empire. Only connections of those two will know how much they have left to work on; Forbidden Love was well placed but did not quicken and Count de Rupee came from a long way back, finishing well. We await the other trial races with interest and wish the best of luck to all challengers.