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| Dane Squance |
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What will it take for Eduardo to beat Nature Strip in Saturday’s $15m TAB Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick?
It’s a question trainer Joe Pride has spent plenty of time pondering and he’s come to the conclusion that Eduardo has beaten the champ before, so he knows it can be done, but to do it over 1200m in an Everest it’ll need a “tactically perfect” ride from Nash Rawiller.
“Statistically it seems impossible for him to win without (Nash),” Pride said.
“Nash just gets it right on him when he goes on the horse. I’m not a massive one for trying to quantify, or put a number beside, a horse’s performance but he can perform at a level to beat Nature Strip.
“I’ve got a horse with, I think, the best chance to beat him. Hopefully everything goes well with him and he gets that opportunity.”
Let’s take a look at the stats.
First, the jockey. Eduardo has won nine races from 17 starts since he walked into Pride’s stable and Rawiller has been on board in every one of those wins from 14 rides. Pride said to be fair to the two other jockeys who have partnered the gelding they only had limited chances.
Next, the Nature Strip record.
They’ve met 11 times and Nature Strip has a 7-4 lead on Eduardo. Over 1200m it’s 4-0 and that’s the challenge facing Pride and Rawiller.
All four have been at Randwick in the past two Everests and TJ Smith Stakes.
“I feel like it’s been overlooked the fact Eduardo has beaten Nature Strip on quite a few occasions and no other horse in the field has actually beaten him,’’ he said.
“At the end of the day we can try and compare races on different days but when horses have met it’s a pretty good comparison. He can beat him.
“I think 1200m at Randwick is Nature Strip’s absolute pet distance. I’d love to meet Nature Strip over 1200m at Rosehill, I think we’d be more advantaged. But they’re not moving the Everest there.”
Since Eduardo’s fourth behind Nature Strip in The Shorts (1100m) a month ago he’s followed Pride’s plan of trialling just over a week out from the Everest.
He knows he has to turn the result around in circumstances that history shows favour his great rival but you get the sense nobody is going to be left to wonder what might have been on Saturday.
“He needed the trial to blow off a bit of steam, he’s just a ball of energy. I loved the way he picked up,’’ he said.
“I dislike horses coming off peak runs going into their grand final. We see it all the time. Off the back of a run like that I feel that’s why he can put in a great performance, and he needs to.
“I truly believe he is in the best condition of his life.”
Pride said he doesn’t care about the barrier draw, Eduardo will go forward as usual and the rest is up to the horse.
When the TAB Everest was announced in 2017, Pride said he always thought it was a race that played to his small stable’s strong suit so it’s no surprise he has two Everest runners this year with 2021 Epsom winner Private Eye in the field.
The five-year-old earned his place with a dominant performance in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes (1200m) at Flemington, claiming the Inglis slot.
“I remember when they announced the race, I thought ‘there’s a race that is going to suit me’,’’ he said.
“Older sprinters, this is right up my alley. I intend on having one or two in it every year if possible.”
Pride said the key to Private Eye’s chances will be the track condition given speed is assured with Nature Strip and Eduardo up front.
“He’s not making up the numbers, he’s a really strong horse,’’ he said.
“What he’s going to need to be competitive is a drying track, I don’t mean a 4 or a 5 but maybe a (soft) 6 or a 7.
“All his best runs, the Epsom and the Queensland Guineas, are off fast tempos and he will certainly get that. It’s a big opportunity for him with his blinkers on to do well, he’s quite sharp when he has the blinkers on and we saw that at Flemington last start.”