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| Staff Writer |
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Eight of the last ten times the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf has been run, trainers Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby have placed a horse in the top two. A favourite trained by O'Brien (Arizona in 2019) and owned by Coolmore were both found in the two outliers (Hootenanny in 2014). Although trends come and go, the general consensus is that juveniles schooled in Europe in 2022 did not have a vintage year. This conclusion is supported by evidence, albeit weakly. Over the past decade, the winning Juvenile Turf horse has averaged a Racing Post Rating of 114. It's the joint-second lowest number in the recent decade, yet this year nine European toddlers have sprinted 115 or higher.
Silver Knott, winner of the Autumn Stakes, is the top juvenile in Europe and a prohibitive favourite. He is one of the nine horses mentioned above because the order in which he defeated Epictetus, Holloway Boy, and Dancing Magic in his previous race was the same order in which they finished second through fourth in the Gr.1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. Previous to this, in the Champagne Stakes, Silver Knott had been given odds of 8-13 against Chaldean, who would later win the Dewhurst. Three of the last four winners of this race in the United States had previously competed in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont in October. This year's event was held in Aqueduct instead of Belmont because to construction, and Major Dude and I'm Very Busy finished first and second, respectively. Major Dude is the highest-rated Pilgrim winner (109 RPR) since Bobby's Kitten in 2013, which is particularly impressive given the slightly below-average profile of the European cohort. I'm Very Busy, who finished second in the distance last time, has a speedier pedigree and a lower draw this time, so he or she may benefit from the reduced distance.
Charlie Appleby's growing reputation for transatlantic success is surely factored into odds of 5-4 about Silver Knott for this race, won by the trainer twice in the last four years. Appleby freely compared him to a couple of the established older horses who also form part of his Keeneland team as he explained why he had decided to come here with a horse who would have legitimate Classic aspirations in England a few months from now.
"There's no harm in coming here and hardening him up a little bit more, giving him that bit of experience," Appleby said. "He could be something like Nations Pride or Modern Games next year, a horse that could do plenty of travelling. Why not get him schooled up early in his career? "What we've seen so far, everything looks great. His mindset's been great here. That's something that was a little bit of a concern, eight weeks ago, whether he'd be mentally able to take a challenge like this. But so far we've been very pleased and if he can handle everything on the day, he's a worthy favourite and the one to beat." The one real blot on Silver Knott's record was in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster during the St Leger meeting, when he was last of three and well held by Chaldean. It doesn't hurt that the winner has since followed up in the Dewhurst. "That was soft ground," Appleby says, noting cheerfully that Silver Knott will get a very different surface here. "I'm probably one of the few trainers whose Lope De Vegas don't seem to go on soft ground. "Coming here on a sound surface, I'm really happy with him. He put up a good performance in the Autumn Stakes. He came out of the race well. "I felt the step up in trip to a mile was always going to suit him. He loved the quick ground there at Newmarket and he has the right profile to come here."