Queen Anne Stakes — Group One, Royal Ascot
Ten Bob Tony Springs the Greatest Royal Ascot Shock in 76 Years
The Royal Ascot curtain came down on one of the most improbable results in the meeting’s modern era on Tuesday afternoon, as Ten Bob Tony became the longest-priced winner of the Gr.1 Queen Anne Stakes since Garrick in 1950. Ed Walker’s five-year-old, sent off at 50/1 having spent most of his career racing over shorter distances, did not merely sneak a race that fell apart — he won it with authority, defeating More Thunder by half a length with the pace-forcing Opera Ballo a further margin back in third. The 9/4 favourite Notable Speech, attempting to add a Queen Anne to his Lockinge success, finished sixth for the second consecutive year at the same track.
The race was made by jockey Kieran Shoemark’s decision to comply with the strategy agreed beforehand to the letter. With Opera Ballo and the Godolphin runner setting strong early fractions into a headwind on the straight mile, Shoemark settled Ten Bob Tony last of nine — unhurried, uninvolved, and entirely untroubled. The move off the bridle came approaching the final furlong, the gelding picking up along the stands’ rail to join Opera Ballo and challenge simultaneously with More Thunder on the far side. Where other horses found the contest already decided, Ten Bob Tony found more, the winning margin understating the comfort with which the challenge was repelled. Opera Ballo, who had done the lion’s share of the work into a headwind, had given everything he had and could find no more once collared.
Notable Speech’s defeat demands a brief word. The Godolphin charge travelled without apparent ease and was being asked to pick up from two furlongs out — a poor sign on any day, and a damning one for a Group One favourite on his home track. Trainer Charlie Appleby pointed directly to Ascot as the issue, noting the horse performs differently here than anywhere else, and identified the Prix Jacques Le Marois as the next port of call ahead of his usual autumn travels.
Notable Speech Has an Ascot Problem, and Godolphin Cannot Explain It
This result changes the immediate picture of the straight-mile division in a way that will take some time to absorb. It does not change the top of the division — Notable Speech, on his Lockinge form, remains the horse to beat when the ground and track work in his favour — but it complicates the narrative considerably. A 50/1 winner does not rewrite divisions; it reminds us that Group One fields in June, when the best mile horses often target elsewhere, are fragile hierarchies.
What the result does confirm, more cleanly, is the quality of the preparation coming out of Walker’s yard. Ten Bob Tony won the Gr.3 Tattenham Corner Stakes at Epsom just ten days before Tuesday’s start — a head success over a shorter distance — and was trained to step up to a mile on fast ground for the first time in his career and produce a career best. The trainer noted that the horse’s previous belief that he wanted easy ground proved incorrect; Good to Firm suited him perfectly at Ascot. That kind of adaptability, confirmed rather than revealed on Tuesday, marks out the preparation as accomplished.
The defeat of More Thunder, sent off joint 7/2, is less damaging. Trainer William Haggas acknowledged frustration in the way only the very secure can — crediting the winner unreservedly while immediately speculating aloud whether his charge might now be effective over a mile and a quarter. For Godolphin, the dilemma is real: Opera Ballo ran a creditable race doing all the early work, finishing third; the operation’s best straight-mile weapon remains Notable Speech, and he does not perform here. The Sussex Stakes at Goodwood has just become an even more important race for the stable’s mile programme.
A Pace Trap That Has Sprung Before — and What It Means for the Forêt
Notable Speech, racing for Godolphin, is the thread worth pulling from this result. Pointed now at the Prix Jacques Le Marois before his North American autumn campaign, the Lockinge winner’s trajectory keeps him prominent in the international mile narrative while confirming what has been quietly understood for two seasons: Ascot and this horse are a poor fit.
The more instructive reading, beyond the Godolphin position, is structural. The Queen Anne’s vulnerability to pace dynamics on the straight course — demonstrated again as a patient ride from last demolished a strongly fancied field — is a recurring feature of the race. Horses arriving with sound preparation and tactical flexibility have outperformed their market prices here before. The comparable situation is Accidental Agent in 2018, a 66/1 winner trained with similar patience; the connection there was not breeding or form, but a horse arriving fresh and unencumbered into a race where the pace conspired against the market leaders.
Ten Bob Tony himself has the Gr.1 Prix de la Forêt at ParisLongchamp pencilled in as the autumn objective — a race that historically rewards the kind of sharp, progressive miler his profile now represents.
‘The Miracle Happened’ — Walker, Shoemark and Sadler on a Day None of Them Expected
Walker was frank about the pre-race strategy: “We agreed we’d sit last and try to pass as many as we could in the final furlong. Kieran didn’t commit him too early and saved him for the finish. He’s a super-kind horse — just a legend.”
Shoemark spoke of a horse who has found a new level: “He is clearly thriving. I thought his run at Epsom was pretty good, but he’s obviously taken another step forward and is in a good frame of mind. He has danced a lot of dances, but he’s turned up when it mattered.”
Winning owner Simon Sadler — for whom Ten Bob Tony was his very first horse, now one of more than 50 in training worldwide — was visibly overcome: “I am blown away. I am shaking. There are tears running down my face. Never in a million years did we think this would happen.”
The Prix de la Forêt is the stated autumn target. A Group One winner trained over a sprint trip, victorious on a mile, now pointed at seven furlongs in Paris — Ten Bob Tony has, in a single afternoon, rendered every assumption about his ceiling redundant.
1st Ten Bob Tony – Ed Walker – Kieran Shoemark
2nd More Thunder – William Haggas – Tom Marquand
3rd Opera Ballo – Charlie Appleby – Billy Loughnane
4th Zeus Olympios – Karl Burke – Clifford Lee
5th Damysus – John & Thady Gosden – James Doyle
6th Notable Speech – Charlie Appleby – William Buick
7th Docklands – Harry Eustace – Mark Zahra
8th Cicero's Gift – Clive Cox – Jason Watson
9th First Conquest – Saeed bin Suroor – Christophe Soumillon